a_cubed: (Default)
[personal profile] a_cubed
So, no matter how clear it becomes that the UK leaving the EU makes the economic situation a disaster, and that it really won't help those who voted for it (many on the basis of economic lies told by the leave campaign), it seems like it really is going to happen. At the very least Article 50 will be invoked and it's quite possible a very hard Brexit could follow in March/April 2019 with no real deal with the EU27 in place. I've been struggling to understand what on earth the senior government ministers have been thinking, and I now think I understand.
It's all the same as why Cameron made his promise of a referendum in the first place. About 40% of sitting Conservative MPs are hard euroskeptics. Many of them have hard euroskeptic local associations in their constituencies. Without their support no Conservative will be Prime Minister, because to these people the EU is a demon. Cameron promised the referendum, believing he could not lose, but lost his gamble. May, whether or not she is a closet Brexiter or a weak Remainer, cannot remain PM without the support of those 40% of her own MPs. She can get nothing done without them, with the small majority she has.
So, she's willing to sacrifice the country's economy to keep herself and her party in power. When she became Prime Minister she said that her priority was the unity of her party. Not the unity of the country, which is deeply split over the EU question, but the party. She didn't even mention attempting to find common ground within the country, just within her own party. And so, Pop Goes the Weasel, and down the drain goes the UK economy, and possibly the UK, split into constituent parts, with an independent Scotland, a re-united Ireland and England/Wales left spiralling down.

Date: 2016-10-31 10:58 am (UTC)
tobyaw: (Default)
From: [personal profile] tobyaw
Worth noting also the significant impact Brexit is having on Labour. Many of their north of England safe seats voted firmly for Brexit, as did many of their target seats. It’s likely that they will have to revise their policies in a pro-Brexit direction before the next election, if they want to hold and gain seats. We’re already seeing movement from some shadow cabinet members. Mind you, the Labour leadership don’t seem very motivated to win the next election, so perhaps the Tories will have an easy run.

I would take issue with your categorisation of the economic situation as a disaster. The woeful pre-referendum predictions have largely not come to pass, and most economic measures continue to be positive. We’re in the early stages of the economy reshaping, but it is far from clear that the outcome will be disastrous.

Date: 2016-10-31 02:10 pm (UTC)
ext_58972: Mad! (Default)
From: [identity profile] autopope.livejournal.com
I would take issue with your categorisation of the economic situation as a disaster. The woeful pre-referendum predictions have largely not come to pass, and most economic measures continue to be positive. We’re in the early stages of the economy reshaping, but it is far from clear that the outcome will be disastrous.

Modern international supply chains are complex, with components going back and forth like crazy, as witness the to-ing and fro-ing over the transnational car industry. But we import 40% of our food and 100% of our Apple Macs, and it should be no surprise that food prices are beginning to rise at the wholesale end (despite strong deflationary pressure from the supermarkets, who are competing ruthlessly on price), and Apple just ramped their prices 20% across the board ... because Sterling is in the tank, and still sinking.

Date: 2016-10-31 02:08 pm (UTC)
ext_58972: Mad! (Default)
From: [identity profile] autopope.livejournal.com
Correct.

The Brexit referendum also revived the Scottish independence movement, which just six months ago had written its prospects off for a generation -- the assymetric outcome north and south of the border was precisely the worst possible result from a unionist perspective. The last Scottish Independence referendum started from a 30% pro vote and ended with a 15% swing to independence; the voters are still cagey, but baseline support for independence is now in the 42-45% range, so all it will take will be bad Brexit negotiations and some coy hints at fast-track membership from Brussels and Scotland will be out.

Date: 2016-10-31 02:49 pm (UTC)
tobyaw: (Default)
From: [personal profile] tobyaw
I’m not sure it is as clear cut as that. Ashcroft‘s polling suggest that 36% of SNP supporters voted in favour of Brexit, not far off the national result of 38%. It is possible that ⅓ of those who voted in favour of independence in 2014 also voted for Brexit in 2016.

Linking a second indyref to membership of the EU might be counterproductive.

Date: 2016-10-31 08:10 pm (UTC)
ext_58972: Mad! (Default)
From: [identity profile] autopope.livejournal.com
Yes, but people other than SNP voters voted for independence as well (datum at random: me).

Date: 2016-11-01 01:15 pm (UTC)
tobyaw: (Default)
From: [personal profile] tobyaw
Well, me too. But I voted for independence in 2014 (part of the 45%), and for independence in 2016 (part of the 38%). I’d hate to see future campaigning for Scottish independence to be focused on retaining (or regaining) membership of the EU.

Date: 2016-10-31 11:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] surliminal.livejournal.com
And this surprises you because?

Date: 2016-11-02 02:44 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] clarehooper.livejournal.com
Makes sense :(

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