Why Brexit means Brexit
Oct. 31st, 2016 10:15 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
a_cubedSo, no matter how clear it becomes that the UK leaving the EU makes the economic situation a disaster, and that it really won't help those who voted for it (many on the basis of economic lies told by the leave campaign), it seems like it really is going to happen. At the very least Article 50 will be invoked and it's quite possible a very hard Brexit could follow in March/April 2019 with no real deal with the EU27 in place. I've been struggling to understand what on earth the senior government ministers have been thinking, and I now think I understand.
It's all the same as why Cameron made his promise of a referendum in the first place. About 40% of sitting Conservative MPs are hard euroskeptics. Many of them have hard euroskeptic local associations in their constituencies. Without their support no Conservative will be Prime Minister, because to these people the EU is a demon. Cameron promised the referendum, believing he could not lose, but lost his gamble. May, whether or not she is a closet Brexiter or a weak Remainer, cannot remain PM without the support of those 40% of her own MPs. She can get nothing done without them, with the small majority she has.
So, she's willing to sacrifice the country's economy to keep herself and her party in power. When she became Prime Minister she said that her priority was the unity of her party. Not the unity of the country, which is deeply split over the EU question, but the party. She didn't even mention attempting to find common ground within the country, just within her own party. And so, Pop Goes the Weasel, and down the drain goes the UK economy, and possibly the UK, split into constituent parts, with an independent Scotland, a re-united Ireland and England/Wales left spiralling down.
It's all the same as why Cameron made his promise of a referendum in the first place. About 40% of sitting Conservative MPs are hard euroskeptics. Many of them have hard euroskeptic local associations in their constituencies. Without their support no Conservative will be Prime Minister, because to these people the EU is a demon. Cameron promised the referendum, believing he could not lose, but lost his gamble. May, whether or not she is a closet Brexiter or a weak Remainer, cannot remain PM without the support of those 40% of her own MPs. She can get nothing done without them, with the small majority she has.
So, she's willing to sacrifice the country's economy to keep herself and her party in power. When she became Prime Minister she said that her priority was the unity of her party. Not the unity of the country, which is deeply split over the EU question, but the party. She didn't even mention attempting to find common ground within the country, just within her own party. And so, Pop Goes the Weasel, and down the drain goes the UK economy, and possibly the UK, split into constituent parts, with an independent Scotland, a re-united Ireland and England/Wales left spiralling down.
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Date: 2016-10-31 02:08 pm (UTC)The Brexit referendum also revived the Scottish independence movement, which just six months ago had written its prospects off for a generation -- the assymetric outcome north and south of the border was precisely the worst possible result from a unionist perspective. The last Scottish Independence referendum started from a 30% pro vote and ended with a 15% swing to independence; the voters are still cagey, but baseline support for independence is now in the 42-45% range, so all it will take will be bad Brexit negotiations and some coy hints at fast-track membership from Brussels and Scotland will be out.
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Date: 2016-10-31 02:49 pm (UTC)Linking a second indyref to membership of the EU might be counterproductive.
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Date: 2016-10-31 08:10 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-01 01:15 pm (UTC)